Update #9
Fri, 23 Sep 2011 10:01:35 AM UTC+0800

As of 9:30 p.m. EDT Sept. 22, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 110 mi by 115 mi
(175 km by 185 km). Re-entry is possible sometime during the afternoon or
early evening of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be
passing over North America during that time period. It is still too early to
predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but
predictions will become more refined in the next 24 hours.

預計在24日的早上到中午(+8時區)墜落

UARS預測將不會進入北美地區，但時間跟地點仍是未知數...


※ 引述《kc1446 (咱只有這條路)》之銘言：
: 再送來一個update
: Update #7
: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 06:35:54 AM GMT+0800
: As of 1:30 p.m. EDT Sept. 21, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 120 mi by 130 mi
:  (190 km by 205 km). Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of
:  Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over
: North America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the
:  time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will
:  become more refined in the next 24 to 48 hours.
: Update #8
: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 07:44:51 PM GMT+0800
: As of 7 a.m. EDT Sept. 22, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 115 mi by 120 mi (
: 185 km by 195 km). Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of
: Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over North
:  America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the time
:  and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become
:  more refined in the next 24 to 36 hours.
: www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=279641928730147
: 楊正雄先生今晨五時用放大攝影拍到的URAS身影

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◆ From: 140.116.97.137
推 snocia:日本文部科學省發表的預測　http://i.imgur.com/IqORw.jpg   09/23 13:32
→ snocia:此圖公開在該單位的facebook上，是根據Updte#9的資料和      09/23 13:33
→ snocia:UARS軌道在地面投影的軌跡繪成。                           09/23 13:34
→ snocia:該省指出，不知為何NASA發表不會降落在北美洲               09/23 13:35
→ snocia:同時註明因為大氣抵抗的影響，實際落下的軌道會有不同。     09/23 13:36

Update #10
Fri, 23 Sep 2011 10:45:08 PM GMT+0800

As of 10:30 a.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 100 miles by

105 miles (160 km by 170 km). Re-entry is expected late Friday, Sept. 23, or

early Saturday, Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time. Solar activity is no longer

the major factor in the satellite’s rate of descent. The satellite’s

orientation or configuration apparently has changed, and that is now slowing

its descent. There is a low probability any debris that survives re-entry

will land in the United States, but the possibility cannot be discounted

because of this changing rate of descent. It is still too early to predict

the time and location of re-entry with any certainty, but predictions will

become more refined in the next 12 to 18 hours.

還是一樣，不會落美國~~

剛剛有看到日本發布說會在台灣或日本一帶著陸(?)